October 2026 San Mateo County Real Estate Market Update: Stability Returns as Buyers and Sellers Adjust
If you’ve been following headlines about Bay Area real estate, you may be wondering whether the market is heating up, cooling down, or simply settling into a new normal.
The answer depends heavily on where you are.
As we move into October, the September market data gives us important clues about where the Peninsula real estate market is heading. The latest year-to-date data through September 29, 2026 shows just how different conditions can be from one Peninsula community to another. Some cities continue to see homes selling substantially above asking price and moving quickly, while other markets are giving buyers more time and negotiating room.
That’s why broad statements about “the Bay Area housing market” can be misleading. Real estate here is intensely local — and sometimes the differences between neighboring communities are substantial.
San Mateo Remains Highly Competitive
San Mateo is one of the clearest examples.
Through September 29, 397 single-family homes had closed in San Mateo in 2026. The average list price was $2,226,936, while the average sale price reached $2,430,463.
Homes sold for an average of 109% of list price, with an average of just 17 days on market. The average price per square foot was $1,330.
That 109% figure is particularly important. It suggests that desirable, appropriately positioned homes are still generating significant competition.
For sellers, this is a reminder that strong demand does not necessarily mean pricing a property as high as possible. In a competitive market, the relationship between the initial asking price, buyer expectations and the home’s presentation can have a major impact on the final result.
For buyers, it means the asking price may not represent the price at which a desirable property ultimately trades.
Burlingame Continues to Command Premium Pricing
Burlingame remains another strong Peninsula market.
Through September 29, there were 160 single-family closings, with an average list price of $3,223,536 and an average sale price of $3,442,557.
Homes sold for an average of 107% of list price, spent just 13 days on market, and averaged $1,546 per square foot.
Those numbers tell a fairly straightforward story: Burlingame buyers are still willing to compete for the right property.
The short average marketing time is also notable. Thirteen days does not leave buyers much time to begin learning the market after a desirable home appears. Preparation before the right listing arrives can matter enormously.
San Carlos Is Showing Similar Strength
San Carlos is exhibiting many of the same characteristics.
As of September 29, 201 single-family homes had closed at an average sale price of $2,910,808, compared with an average list price of $2,752,421.
That translates to an average 106% list-to-sale ratio, with homes spending approximately 16 days on market. The average price per square foot was $1,428.
Again, the combination of above-list sales and relatively short market times indicates that buyers remain active when properties meet their expectations.
Belmont Is Competitive, Too
Belmont’s 2026 numbers show another market where sellers have generally been achieving prices above asking.
Through September 29, 138 single-family homes had closed. The average list price was $2,419,240, while the average sale price was $2,552,799.
Homes averaged 106% of list price, 19 days on market, and $1,351 per square foot.
That puts Belmont broadly in line with the competitive pattern visible in several mid-Peninsula single-family markets.
Redwood City Is Strong — But Moving a Little More Slowly
Redwood City provides an interesting contrast.
There were 395 single-family closings through September 29, with an average list price of $2,329,297 and an average sale price of $2,458,723.
Homes averaged 106% of list price, but the average time on market was 20 days — slightly longer than Burlingame, San Mateo or San Carlos. Average price per square foot was $1,302.
Twenty days is hardly a slow market, but it illustrates why buyers and sellers shouldn’t assume conditions are identical from city to city.
Foster City Shows a Different Price Dynamic
Foster City’s single-family market looks different again.
Through September 29, 57 homes had closed, with an average list price of $2,179,094 and an average sale price of $2,280,162.
The average list-to-sale ratio was 105%, average days on market was 18, and average price per square foot was $1,130.
Homes are still selling above list on average, but the degree of overbidding is lower than in San Mateo.
That distinction matters when setting expectations. A strategy appropriate for one Peninsula city may not translate directly to another.
Hillsborough Is Its Own Market
Hillsborough demonstrates this perhaps better than anywhere.
Through September 29, 102 single-family homes had closed, with an average list price of $8,134,432 and an average sale price of $8,136,657.
That works out to essentially 100% of list price, with an average of 32 days on market and $1,688 per square foot.
Compare that with San Mateo’s 109% list-to-sale ratio and 17-day average market time.
That does not mean one market is inherently stronger or weaker than the other. Hillsborough operates at a dramatically different price point, with a smaller buyer pool and highly individual properties. But it illustrates exactly why Peninsula real estate needs to be evaluated community by community.
Menlo Park Shows Another Side of the Peninsula Market
Menlo Park’s single-family market has also remained active, but its numbers look different from those farther north.
Through September 29, 226 homes had closed at an average sale price of $4,091,827, compared with an average list price of $3,938,747.
The average list-to-sale ratio was 104%, average days on market was 16, and average price per square foot reached $1,753.
The relatively short market time combined with a more moderate sale-to-list premium is another reminder that competitiveness doesn’t show up in only one statistic.
Condos Tell a Different Story
This is where the market becomes even more interesting.
Single-family homes and condos should not be treated as interchangeable markets.
For example, San Mateo condos through September 29 averaged 101% of list price and 42 days on market, compared with 109% and 17 days for San Mateo single-family homes. The average San Mateo condo sale price was $995,119.
In Burlingame, condos averaged 103% of list price and 41 days on market, compared with 107% and 13 days for single-family homes.
And in Redwood City, condos averaged 99% of list price and 42 days on market, with an average sale price of $1,074,512.
That difference is meaningful.
A buyer who feels discouraged by competition for single-family homes may find a very different environment in the condo market. Likewise, condo sellers need to be careful about using nearby single-family sales to set expectations for pricing or marketing time.
More Inventory Is Giving Buyers More Choice
Another important shift is the amount of inventory available across the Peninsula. In several communities, the number of active listings has increased as the year has progressed.
That doesn’t necessarily mean prices are weakening. In fact, many Peninsula single-family markets are still producing strong sale-to-list ratios and relatively short marketing times. Instead, increasing inventory may be creating a more balanced environment in which buyers have more options and sellers face more competition from other homes on the market.
For sellers, that makes preparation, pricing and presentation increasingly important. Buyers may still compete aggressively for standout properties, but they have more alternatives if a home feels overpriced or poorly positioned.
For buyers, additional inventory can mean something we haven’t consistently seen in recent years: more choice and, depending on the property, potentially more negotiating room.
Prices are holding strong and many homes are still selling above asking — but increasing inventory and higher borrowing costs are giving buyers more choices and making pricing strategy increasingly important for sellers.
Higher Interest Rates Are Adding Another Layer to the Market
Mortgage rates remain an important part of the housing picture. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03% as of September 24, according to Freddie Mac, making affordability an ongoing consideration for buyers.
What is interesting on the Peninsula is that higher borrowing costs have not translated uniformly into weaker home prices. Many single-family homes are still selling at or above asking price, particularly when they are well located, well prepared and appropriately priced.
At the same time, higher rates combined with increasing inventory can give buyers more reason to be selective. Monthly payment matters, and when buyers have several comparable homes to choose from, they may be less willing to stretch for a property that feels overpriced.
For sellers, this makes pricing strategy especially important. Strong demand still exists, but today’s buyers are evaluating both the price of the home and the cost of financing it.
What This Means for Peninsula Sellers
The September data does not support a simple narrative that the market is either universally “hot” or universally “cool.”
Instead, it shows a segmented market.
In several Peninsula communities, single-family homes continue to sell above asking price and relatively quickly. But the amount buyers are willing to pay above list varies considerably by location, property type and price point.
That makes pricing strategy particularly important.
The goal isn’t simply to put the highest possible number on a property. It’s to understand where buyers are actually responding in the current market and position the home accordingly.
What This Means for Peninsula Buyers
Buyers should also be careful about drawing conclusions from a handful of listings.
If you’ve been shopping in San Mateo and repeatedly encountering competitive offer situations, for example, that experience is supported by the broader data. But moving into another city — or even changing property type — can produce very different conditions.
The opportunity may not necessarily come from waiting for the entire Bay Area market to change.
It may come from understanding where the market is already different.
The Takeaway: Local Data Matters More Than the Headline
Perhaps the clearest message in the September 2026 numbers is that there really isn’t a single Peninsula housing market.
San Mateo single-family homes are averaging 109% of list price. Burlingame is at 107%. San Carlos, Belmont and Redwood City are at 106%. Foster City is at 105%, while Hillsborough is around 100%. At the same time, several condo markets are moving much more slowly than their single-family counterparts.
Those differences are why I believe good real estate advice has to start locally — with the specific property, neighborhood, price point and current competition — rather than with a generalized headline about the Bay Area.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling on the Peninsula, I’m always happy to help you look at what the numbers mean for your specific situation.
Market Data Source: MLSListings, Inc. Single-family home and condominium sales data, year-to-date through September 29, 2026. Data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Traci Hornbaker
Hornbaker Homes
Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno
DRE #01980740